Gartner hype cycle internet of things
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Moreover, there is a disillusionment from what a connected, smart home will eventually be capable of and it may be that consumers aren’t quite ready to pay a premium for connected devices vs those that do their job.įourth, self-driving or, as Gartner calls them, Autonomous Vehicles. Devices themselves have been “smartened” in various ways, with varying success but the platforms connecting them into a usable tool aren’t quite there yet.
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It seems that IoT is at a crossroads of sorts. That said, last year Gartner moved IoT itself (meaning devices?) off the Cycle and into the Plateau but left these two at the peak. I’m rather surprised that Gartner still sees IoT platforms and the connected home at the Peak of Inflated Expectations where I see them somewhere in the Trough of Disillusionment.
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AR has spent the last few years slowly sliding into the trough and Gartner placed it at lowest point of the Trough for 2017, with expected time to reach plateau in 5-10 years, matching Abrash’s prediction for glasses. Gartner places VR well on its way to adoption on the Slope of Enlightenment for 2017, where it was last year as well, but this time with an expected time to reach the Plateau in 2-5 years as opposed to 5-10 last year. He also said it’s possible we’re 10 years out.” Interestingly, adoption is moving faster than predicted for VR. Yet Abrash added that “real, always-on augmented reality glasses are at least five years away. He talked about near term applications such as seeing your friends dish recommendations on a restaurant menu and some (very) far but amazing applications such as adding name labels for people you know in a crowd. Michael Abrash, the chief scientist for Oculus, talked about some potential uses for AR that have some fascinating implementations, especially when enhanced by the social graph. At their F8 conference this year, Facebook demoed fun VR products but it was their talk about AR that I found most interesting. Second technology I’ve been following is AR. Google, at least, placed an emphasis on creating more apps for Assistant at their annual I/O conference, which bodes well for this technology. This will change as assistants become more versatile and voice interactions become easier. This could indicate that Gartner believes that while smart speakers are becoming more widespread, it’s their capability to interact and answer questions via voice that are more valued by consumers than assistants. The other component of smart speakers are Virtual Assistants, which remain just under the Peak this year. This year, it’s off the chart which I take to mean it has reached adoption faster than predicted. In 2016 Natural Language Question Answering, what I see as one component of smart speakers, was sliding into the Trough of Disillusionment but expected to reach mainstream adoption. The Hype Cycle reflects this spurt in adoption. Half of the potential market still needs convincing that voice assistants are the wave of the future, and companies need to ensure that newcomers have a positive first impression.”Ĭat listening to cat sounds on Google Home But even outside the holidays - when about three out of every four smart speakers was sold last year -sales have been up 39 percent on a year-over-year basis… Google Home topped US online sales of smart speakers during the holidays, Amazon’s Echo Dot - which sells for less than half the price - held that title in the first quarter.” Yet what’s interesting about that report, from only two months ago, is that “49% of U.S. Since last summer’s report Home and Echo have seen a jump in sales and in the 2016 holiday season, “US sales jumped nearly 1,000% from the same period a year earlier. Sources: Gartner 2014, Gartner 2015, Gartner 2016, Gartner 2017įirst thing I looked for this year was what Gartner thinks of voice-activated smart speakers such as Google Home, Amazon Echo, and the yet-to-be-released Apple HomePod and Facebook’s Aloha. Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2014-2017